Trump, Venezuela and The Return of Gunboat Diplomacy
On January 3,2026, Nicola Maduro (the self proclaimed President of Venezuela) was extracted from Venezuela by US military forces during an operation code named Operation Absolute Resolve. He was immediately transferred to the United States to face pending federal criminal indictments in New York. The charges include narcotics trafficking and criminal conspiracy. His wife was also kidnapped and added to the defendants named on the original 2019 indictment. The operation was surgical, involving air strikes and special forces. Eighty Venezuelan and Cuban security people were killed in the operation. There were no American casualties. By any definition or benchmark, it was a stunning and brilliantly executed military attack. BUT, what was the policy objective? Was the attack legal under international law? What does it mean for the future of Venezuela? Is there an identifiable and coherent American political strategy?
At first glance the Venezuelan raid is an early indicator that 2026 will be even more bizarre than 2025. Trump is doubling down oh his commitment to change the structure of the world order- the ultimate disrupter in chief. Flush from the success of the Maduro kidnapping, he has now directly threatened Cuba, Columbia, Mexico, Iran and Greenland with American military action. Buckle up- by the Super Bowl he may have overthrown Pope Leo.
Polemics aside, let me share some hard headed conclusions about what this all means in the big picture. First, the removal of Nicola Maduro is probably an objective good. He will not be missed! He was a terrible President of Venezuela. He was an illegitimate President since all objective election observers concluded he lost the 2024 Presidential election in a landslide. The United States and the European Union refused to recognise his Presidency after he refused to give up power to the winners of a democratic election. His disastrous tenure produced a catastrophic humanitarian crisis in Venezuela and the western hemisphere. Eight million Venezuelan citizens have fled the country- approximately 25% of the population. This contributed to the immigration crisis in the United States and South America. The Venezuelan economy completely collapsed under his leadership. The Gross national product of Venezuela was 370 billion in 2012- it is now 120 billion. Nice job Nicola!! His regime was oppressive in the extreme. He imprisoned political opponents and regularly used violence, kidnappings, torture and extrajudicial killings as governing tools. His government is basically a criminal enterprise and a narco state. He has continued to support the Cuban dictatorship and was flirting with the Chinese and therefore prevented a national security challenge for the United States. There are good reasons to celebrate Maduro’s future in the American criminal justice system. More complicated is whether the means of ending his time in power was legal or wise.
There have been a barrage of justifications from the Trump administration, many of them internally inconsistent and borderline incoherent. As usual, the messaging has been messy, primarily because the primary communicator is President Trump and he is freewheeling and undisciplined. There is limited coordination between departments so the true reason behind policy decisions is murky. Here, reason No 1, offered by Secretary of State Rubio, is that Mauro’s extraction was a law enforcement action. Simply stated, he had avoided process on the pending federal criminal charges and the Justice Department has the right to cross borders and bring a fugitive back to face justice. Attorney General William Barr issued an Advisory opinion in 2020 stating that a Presidential order authorising the arrest of a foreign leader or citizen in such circumstances is a proper use of Presidential power. We previously tendered the same reasoning when we arrested Noriega during the Panamanian operation during the Presidency of George Bush I. This approach has the colour of legitimacy and the administration should just have adopted the Rubio argument. It is suspicious because it was a law enforcement action that relied exclusively on US military assets. A very expensive service of process and arrest procedure to be sure! Also, worthy of note- Trump never mentions this basis for action when he discusses the operation. Slipped his mind!
Another available basis is asserting that the legitimate winners of the 2024 Venezuelan Presidential election (Machado’s party and Edmondo Gonzalez, the Presidential candidate) had formally sought American assistance in removing an illegitimate government and installing the legitimate winners. BUT, Trump hasn’t made this argument either. Instead, he specifically ruled out supporting Machado’s claim to power and said she is a “nice lady” but lacks support in Venezuela. He ignored that her party received 70% of the vote 18 months ago. Instead, he openly embraced Maduro’s Vice President as the new ruler and stated she is a “terrific lady who is great to work with.” Basically, we took Maduro out, but left his entire allegedly criminal and terrorist regime in place. The notorious Interior Minister and Defence Minister still hold their positions. Trump is openly admitting the elimination of Maduro was solely to expedite American access to Venezuelan natural resources, particularly its vast, if untapped oil reserves. Basically, this awful regime can stay in power as long as they follow what American dictates on the management of the oil supply. Trump will insist on Americans running the fields and controlling the distribution. I assume the orders will include cutting off the oil going to Cuba and China. I guess there is a national security objective here, but this action was not conducted to preserve democracy, enhance human rights or free the Venezuelan people. The Venezuelans who celebrated this operation need to get real- Trump doesn’t care about the Venezuelan people- he cares about Venezuelan oil. He liberated the oil, not the people. This was a total power play. Invading a country to claim its resources is a violation of international law and a rejection of the system in place since WWII. This is the new reality.
Trump has many character flaws, but he is transparent about his thinking and motives. He desires unlimited freedom of action for the United States. He explicitly rejects international law because it is potential check on American action. He has no interest in protecting human rights globally. He will do business with dictators, tyrants, authoritarians and human rights abusers if they are willing to transact business that he believes will enrich the United States. He has no instinct to protect or favour democratically elected governments. In terms of the western hemisphere, he is an avowed imperialist and colonialist. The recently published National Security Strategy makes priority No 1 preserving America’s pre-eminent place in the western hemisphere. The Monroe Doctrine was designed to keep European powers out of South America and the Caribbean. The Trump corollary goes much further- stating that the nation states in our sphere of influence must enact policies in accord with American interests. The nations in the region cannot enter into economic or political arrangements that we view as counter to American national interests. We reserve the right to intervene. Steven Miller, Trump’s Rasputin like Deputy Chief of Staff articulated the operating principle- The United States is a superpower and will act as one at all times. BEWARE! A modern version of the old Machiavellian adage that “the strong will do as they wish and the weak will bow as they must.” Obviously, this is complete rejection of the concept of independent and sovereign nation states.
This set of norms will not be popular with the natives. Countries are not enthusiastic about losing control of there natural resources or their freedom of action. It brings back bad memories of nasty Western colonialism. There will be a backlash. When that time comes will Trump or any successor be pulling to put troops on the ground to “persuade” countries that resist the American plan. Occupations did not work very well in Iraq or Afghanistan. The MAGA base wont like it! I doubt we can run countries from desks in Washington. The stakes are high. International norms have required great powers to forego imposing their will - even to the point of subordinating their short term national interests to long term aspirations for international peace and justice. It is a system that we created and from which we have benefited from enormously. We have friends- we have allies. Unilateral American military action to claim resources or territory (eg Greenland) will reverse this 80 year success story quickly. Putin and Xi hate the current system- they believe it serves American priorities and undermines their power. They will celebrate in Moscow and Beijing as Trump destroys the system they hate so much- and they don’t even need to lift a finger. They will happily accommodate to a new order where might makes right and there are explicit spheres of influence. They will play that game better than us. So Maduro leaving the building may be good thing, but the power formulations that served as the basis for our actions can be abused by others in the future- and we have permanently lost any moral standing to object.
A final philosophical note. It appears we are returning to an unapologetic balance of world power. We have experience with this system. It was the mode of organisation and operation in the global system before 1945. It was the structure that ultimately produced 80 million dead and crimes against humanity. Do we really want to go back there- and now the weaponry available are even more lethal. The “softer” international order in place since 1945 is worth preserving and all foreign policy decisions by this administration should be measured by that benchmark. I am pessimistic. This will not go well!
