Europe in Crisis: Part 5- The End of the Transatlantic Alliance
Europe spent seventy years building the most successful peace project in history- transforming a continent of ancient enemies into partners enjoying unprecedented prosperity and security. This achievement relied heavily on the Trans-Atlantic partnership: American guarantees established a security umbrella which laid the foundation for European political integration and economic development. Now, at precisely the moment when Russia threatens European security, when China challenges the liberal democratic order embraced by Europe, the United States appears poised to walk away from the alliance. Frankly, Europe is in shock and the challenges are intimidating. The path forward is not obvious or easy. How has the Trump Era changed the European paradigm?
The first “Trump disruption” is in the area of security. Trump has not treated NATO as a sacred and successful alliance but as a “protection racket” where the Europeans aren’t paying their bills. He has publicly questioned Article 5 commitments, suggested America might not defend allies who did not meet the 2% spending target and repeatedly discussed withdrawing from NATO entirely. In his first term, he berated European leaders on a regular basis and called Germany a “captive to Russia.” He has upped the ante is his second term. He has demanded that European nations immediately increase defence spending to 3-5% of GDP while simultaneously pressuring Ukraine to accept territorial concessions to Russia. The message to Europe is clear: America’s security guarantee is transactional and conditional, not a solemn commitment among democracies with similar political values. For the first time since 1949, European leaders must seriously contemplate defending themselves without America- a prospect for which they are woefully unprepared.
The second Trump reversal of longstanding policy toward Europe is in the economic realm. For 70 years, America encouraged European prosperity as serving America’s interests. Now, Trump views Europe’s success as coming at America’s expense. He has stated that the EU was created to “screw” the United States. He has imposed tariffs on essentially all European goods, specifically targeting steel, aluminum and automobiles. The blanket tariffs will devastate European exporters. Trump has rejected the post war consensus that free trade is in the interest of both parties within the Atlantic partnership. Instead, he aggressively pursues a policy of zero sum mercantilism. The integrated transatlantic economy - one of the foundations of the post war liberal order- has been deliberately and unilaterally fractured by the United States. This in not good- an aggressively unwise choice made by an immature superpower.
Finally, the US abandonment of Europe goes beyond security and economics. We have an existential crisis here. Trump and MAGA hate Europe and the European Union. They are more comfortable with Putin and other autocrats. The European Union is based on respect for the rule of law, a commitment to human rights and a belief in multilateral international institutions. Trump’s America has NO use for these values or principles. They hate European policies to combat climate change and regulate digital platforms. They openly prefer right wing populist movements to mainstream center right and center left parties. Trump and Vance love the fascist based AFD in Germany, Fidesz in Hungary, Law and Justice in Poland, Farage in the United Kingdom and Marie Le Pen in France. The US is actively putting its thumbs on the scale in European elections. The recently published National Security Strategy is both transparent and outrageous. It explicitly paints a dark (and frankly unrecognisable) portrait of our European allies and indicts European governments for embarking on policies that will result in “civilisational erasure.” They lay the blame on the European Union for undermining political liberty and sovereignty, accuses them of censorship of free speech and suppression of political opposition and for pursuing migration policies that are destroying the continent. It is an extraordinary indictment and most of it is egregious false and untrue. Alice in Wonderland stuff! As my good friend Ivo Daalder (former US Ambassador to NATO and President of the Chicago Council of Foreign Relations) said in response to the “strategy” document- “Europe doesn’t need civilisational lectures from an administration that has eroded the rule of law at home, treated immigrants as animals, called political opponents vermin and espoused racist white Christian nationalism.” I agree, but Europe must confront the unfortunate reality that the United States has gone insane. The transatlantic relationship has been permanently altered - trust has been lost and any student of relationships will tell you that once trust is lost it is almost impossible to restore. Europe should operate on a worst case scenario premise and make the radical adjustments needed to protect its interests without future dependence on the goodwill of the United States.
What needs to be done? Ukraine remains a defining test. Europe recognises that Russian aggression should not be rewarded and feckless “peace” plans authored by the United States do exactly that- basically blaming Ukraine for the start of the war rather than Russia. Europe must insist any agreement contain security guarantees for Ukraine and should continue to make clear that EU membership for post war Ukraine will happen. Europe should be open to placing troops in Ukraine as part of a security guarantee. Europe must continue to increase its defence spending- it will make Trump happy short term and is absolutely necessary for European security long term. NATO has actually been strengthened with the addition of Finland and Sweden. Germany is abandoning its post WWII pacifism and committing to the creation of an active military deterrent. France and the UK have nuclear weapons and should formalise a nuclear umbrella agreement with the rest of Europe. Europe should act as a unit in negotiating trade policies with both the United States and China. They have cards and should learn to pay them strategically. A valid course is to play off the Chinese and Americans against each other for access to European export and import markets. If Trump says everything is transactional, the Europeans should take him at his word and protect themselves. Trump makes demands on Europe to end their profitable economic ties with China. Ignore him- why should European nations sacrifice major economic interests to please an American “ally” and “guarantor” that treats them with contempt.
The end game for Europe here is to establish strategic autonomy and economic competitiveness. This will require a massive military investment with a unified command. Europe must become more economically dynamic and invest more in technology. They need to encourage innovation and scale back over- regulation from Brussels. They need to confront democratic backsliding. Hungary is authoritarian and Poland is flirting with it. Members who choose that route should lose their EU funding and ultimately be excluded from the club. The unanimous vote requirement for policy changes needs to be changed now. The coherence issue can only be solved by more integration, not less. Europe together is a force- European nations on their own are irrelevant politically and economically. Accept that reality and act with confidence. You are on your own! I love Europe and am rooting for it. I want it to be an international player and not just a living museum for American tourists.
