USA v Iran: How America Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb
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On June 25, 2025, the United States attacked Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordo and Ishafan. It followed 10 days of sustained and lethal Israeli strikes against Iranian military and civilian infrastructure. America alone possessed the 30,000 pound bunker busting bombs necessary to destroy the underground enrichment plant at Fordo. After negotiations stalled over Iran’s refusal to accept Trump’s “no enrichment” position, the United States struck with B2 stealth bombers. Although detailed analysis of the damage remains, the international consensus is the mission was very successful and inflicted substantial damage on Fordo. The IAEA inspectors believe the centrifuges were likely destroyed in toto. The Iranian nuclear program has been set back from 6 months to 2-3 years. The location of uranium previously enriched to weapons grade is uncertain. After the attack, Iran executed a perfunctory strike against an American base in Qatar, but then promptly agreed to a ceasefire with Israel. Iran has officially away kicked out IAEA inspectors and has reiterated its refusal to agree to a “no enrichment” program.
The 12 day war has changed the political dynamic in the region. Israel decapitated Iran’s military and scientific leadership with surgical and well planned strikes. They completely eliminated Iran’s remaining missile defence capability and 80% of its offensive missile launchers. Israel successfully defended itself against Iran long range missile attacks with the Iron Dome defence system. Israel experienced zero military casualties and only 28 civilian deaths. An amazingly one sided conflict! Israel paved the way for the US attack. Iran’s crippled defenses created a “no risk” or “low risk” operation for the United States. No one was shooting at our planes. Trump, after hesitating, rode the wave of the Israeli success. The US strike, in sports terms, was the equivalent of an uncontested layup or an empty net goal- a freebie. If we were ever going to strike this was the most opportune time. I stand in awe of Israel’s intelligence and military prowess since October 7, 2023. Iran’s nuclear program is a shell and the military threat of Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran’s proxies, is severely compromised. Iran needs to do some serious soul searching after witnessing the total penetration of its governing apparatus by Israeli intelligence. They are now a “zombie" regime with an estimated approval rating of 25-30 percent of its population. They have been revealed to be a "paper tiger” completely unable to execute on their non stop threats against Israel. The US will push to restart diplomatic discussions and Iran has a choice- race for a bomb with any preserved enriched uranium or come to terms with the reality the United States and Israel will not allow them to rebuild their program. Any restart will just induce supplemental strikes by the Israelis.
What was the pathway which got us to this point. Again, the history is a long and winding road. Surprise No 1- Iran’s nuclear program actually began in the 1950’s under the Shah’s regime under the United States sponsored “Atoms for Peace” program. The Tehran Research Reactor was actually constructed by the USA. Iran signed the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1968 and remains a signatory to this treaty today. This is important. The NPT does not allow enrichment of uranium to “weapons grade” levels and all nuclear facilities must be open to regular IAEA inspections. But, the NPT explicitly allows signatory countries to maintain a civilian use nuclear program- allowing nuclear enrichment to low, non weapons grade levels. Therefore, the current demand for Iran to embrace a “no enrichment” policy would require them to abandon a right reserved to all other signatories to NPT. There are legitimate civilian applications for nuclear energy, including medical, power, industrial, environmental and agricultural. A big step, although no rational person could argue that Iran is not in serious breach of NPT.
The evidence is rather sketchy on when the theocratic Islamic regime resumed a nuclear effort. They made no serious progress in the 80’s, but with Russian assistance built two large reactors in the 90’s. There is also evidence they obtained nuclear weapons research from Pakistan. Israel has believed since 2000 that Iran was committed to developing a nuclear weapons capacity. Their concerns were validated when the Natanz plant was discovered in 2002 and a large water reactor was built in Arak in 2004. US intelligence exposed more sophisticated facilities at Ishafan and Fordo during the Bush and Obama administrations. US policy has been crystal clear for the last 5 Presidents- Iran cannot be allowed to build or possess nuclear weapons. The western response was two fold. First, Israel and the United States conducted successful Stuxnet cyberattacks on Iran enrichment facilities and Israel assassinated several leading Iranian nuclear scientists. Simultaneously, a diplomatic track was pursued by the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia and China. There were severe multinational, EU and US sanctions placed on the Iran’s economy, including oil and financial institutions. Iran’s oil revenue declined by 60 percent and they were cutoff from the world’s banking system. Iran then agreed to negotiate with the underlying premise being a pullback of its nuclear development program in exchange for sanctions relief.
The diplomatic talks were conducted 2013-2015 and led to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Iran agreed to reduce its uranium stockpile by 98% and limit enrichment level to 3.67- far below weapons grade enrichment. The core of the Arak reactor was removed to prevent plutonium production and Iran agreed to a schedule of enhanced IAEA inspections of its nuclear facilities. In exchange, Iran received substantial sanctions relief. JCPOA is known as the “Obama Agreement”, but the signatories were all the major powers. The JCPOA was largely successful and the IAEA consistently verified Iranian compliance through 2018. Iran’s nuclear was reduced from 10,000 kg to 300 kg. The breakout capacity to a weapon was extended to 2 years, sufficient time for sanctions to be reimposed and for Israel and the US to exercise military options if Iran chose to abandon the agreement. There were critics of JCPOA because of the sunset clauses which ended restrictions after 15 years, but the reality is the agreement, perhaps flawed, was a success in containing the Iranian nuclear ambitions.
The worm turned in Trump 1.0. He blasted the agreement as the “worst ever” and ignoring the advice of his Secretary of State and Secretary of Defence unilaterally withdrew the United States from the agreement and reimposed maximum sanctions against Iran. He cited the sunset clauses and the failure of the agreement to control Irans’ ballistic missile program and their support of Hamas and Hezbollah. He basically accepted Netanyahu’s analysis of the problem. Unsurprisingly, Iran responded by gradually reducing its compliance with JCPOA. It exceeded the uranium stockpile limits in 2019, the enrichment limits by 2021 and were rapidly approaching weapons grade enrichment by 2024. Iran blew through the key sections of the agreement and the maximum sanctions imposed by Trump failed to impact Iranian behaviour. The withdrawal was a mistake, but Netanyahu got what he wanted- a scenario where the only remaining tool to stop the program was military action. So here we are- the program is in tatters, but Iran’s crazy political leadership remains in place.
The ultimate outcome is uncertain. The ideal result is the Iranian people overthrowing the regime and committing to a new course- joining the modern world. The country still possess incredible potential. With the current regime, tough choices re abandoning the nuclear weapons program will probably be avoided. Economic isolation will continue, domestic suppression will increase and Iran will be doomed to be a rogue nation. God bless the Iranian people.
