The Israel-Hamas Agreement

Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023. It was a shocking and brutal disruption of the Mideast status quo. Over 1200 Israelis were killed and 250 were kidnapped and moved to the Gaza Strip as hostages.  A high percentage of the casualties were women and children.  The “successful” attack by Hamas generated a cascade of events over the next 24 months- events that changed the political landscape of the Mideast fundamentally. Certainly, many of the post attack developments were not anticipated by the primary participants. The Israelis responded with a full and sustained military assault on the Gaza Strip. The goal was to eliminate Hamas as a political actor permanently. From a military perspective, the Israelis were certainly the winners here. Most of the Hamas military wing's leadership has gone to their final resting place. Overall, 67,000 Palestinians have been killed in the operation and 80 percent of the physical infrastructure in Gaza was destroyed. Gaza resembles 1945 Warsaw or Berlin. A significant percentage of the Palestinian casualties were civilian. Hamas has been brought to its knees, although there are estimates is still has 10,000 fighters under arms. There are no functioning governmental institutions in Gaza. There are no functioning hospitals or schools. People have been forcibly moved 2-3 times over the two year conflict.  There is borderline famine conditions, the water supply is limited and electrical power is absent. Humanitarian corridors were controlled strictly by the IDF and the flow of supplies was erratic and far short of what was required to satisfy the  basic living needs of the populace. Gaza has effectively ceased to exist as an operating entity. 

Outside the confines of Gaza, Israel used the conflict to settle scores with other enemies in the neighbourhood. They pivoted and smashed Hezbollah in Lebanon and humiliated Iran in intense air and rocket warfare in 2024 and 2025.  The Iranian air defences were eliminated and with the assistance of the Americans, the Iranian nuclear program was severely compromised. Syria’s Assad was overthrown and Israel began to strike the Houthis in Yemen. We have written about each of these developments in prior postings. A compelling political aspect of this narrative is the enormous backlash against Israel’s victories globally.  There have been regular and large protests in major European capitals blasting Israel and accusing them of a “genocide” against the Palestinian people. Major European nations have now recognised Palestine as a state.  American college campuses featured anti-Israeli protests that often degenerated into Anti-Zionist and Anti- Semitic exercises.  The war has been a tactical and military win for Israel, but it has suffered a global public relations defeat and catastrophe. Netanyahu and Israel’s approval ratings in Europe, the Arab states, Africa and much of Asia are below 10%. The international discourse, outside the United States, is aggressively anti- Israel. The long term consequences of these realities is very uncertain.  BUT- there was good news this week and all people of goodwill should celebrate it.  Israel-Hamas and an international coalition led by the United States have signed a twenty point agreement ending the conflict and establishing a framework for the future of Gaza.  What should we think of this latest news flash?  

What is in the agreement and how did the parties get here? What are the chances its terms will be implemented by the parties? Step 1 is the immediate return of 28 living Israeli hostages by Hamas, Hamas also promises to return the bodies of 20 deceased Israeli hostages. In exchange, the Israelis will release 1500 Hamas prisoners held in Israeli jails or military custody. With execution of this hostage-prisoner swap, the IDF and has agreed to a complete ceasefire- a cessation of all military action in the Gaza Strip. Israel will complete a partial pullback of its troops and create a buffer zone between Gaza and the Israel border. Step 2 is the voluntary disarming of Hamas and their eventual removal from political authority and the Gaza Strip entirely.  The agreement then contemplates an international stabilisation force that will coordinate the restoration of services in Gaza and the planning of a rebuilding of its physical infrastructure. Finally, the agreement contemplated the creation of a technocratic Palestinian based government for Gaza which would eventually lead to a full fledged Palestinian State in the West Bank and Gaza. Identifying the need for 20 separate steps doesn’t fully capture the ambitious nature of this plan. The last 75 years of mutual hatred and distrust between the Israelis and the Palestinians is a foreboding obstacle, but baby steps are important and all should celebrate the successful implementation of Step 1- the ceasefire and hostage- prisoner release. 

Kudos to the Trump Administration team for bringing the parties together in the final stages of a lengthy negotiation. The final agreement closely mirrors a Biden Administration proposal from 14 months ago, but the timing wasn’t right then. Netanyahu wanted to lock in further military gains in Gaza and achieve success against Hezbollah and Iran. Hamas wasn’t weak enough to see the handwriting on the wall and needed to experience the full extent of Israel’s military dominance in the entire region. Trump’s team was successful at pressuring Netanyahu to “take the win” and also used its solid relationships with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States to persuade them to convince Hamas that the gig was up. Israel and Hamas both clenched their teeth and signed. A solid diplomatic achievement for Trump. It is a good moment and ordinary Israelis and Palestinians should rejoice- or at least be relieved- the killing will stop (for now). In addition to the 1200 killed on October 7th, Israeli had 600 soldiers killed in the Gaza operation. The death toll in Gaza for the Palestinians is obviously mind blowing and tragic. 

I am an optimist and always root for peace and prosperity, but I believe the chances that Steps 2-20 of this agreement ever being executed is close to ZERO. The reasons are overwhelming- the confluence of the radical changes necessary in the historical mindsets of the parties makes me skeptical- lets say cynical about the future prospects for this plan.  It has an Alice in Wonderland quality- perfect for Trump who has already announced he has brought a permanent peace to the Mideast.  Lets look at the primary players and their motivations. First Hamas. They lost- suffered a horrific military defeat.  Furthermore, their nasty friends who kept them supplied with lethal weaponry- Iran and Hezbollah are licking their wounds. The overland delivery pipeline through Syria is gone.  They have no present capacity to inflict harm on Israel in any meaningful way. However, they still have 15,000 fighters in Gaza and over 50% popular support. Young men 18-20 in Gaza are overwhelmingly pro Hamas, having been radicalised by the Israeli onslaught. They have no intention of leaving the building and their pledge to disarm is very VAGUE. I suspect they will lie low and avoid any direct violent interaction with Israel.  They will hunt Palestinian collaborators and seek to regain control of the Palestinian “victim” narrative  in Gaza. They will hope the Israel is exhausted by the conflict and will grudgingly accept the status quo. Odds are that Hamas will remain in charge and Gaza will remain a dysfunctional shithole. 

Israel has a different calculation. In short order, it will need to decide whether it will reengage in Gaza militarily when Hamas drags its feet on disarmament. Should they resume targeted attacks on Hamas and destroy the remaining tunnel system under Gaza.  The far right wing of Netanyahu’s coalition will certainly promote a policy that will “finish the job” since their goal is the eventual expulsion of all Palestinians from Gaza and the West Bank. I am wagering that Israel will accept the status quo as a necessary “breathing space” for its troops, particularly its reserves who genuinely want to return to their civilian lives.  Israel will monitor Hamas closely and not allow Hezbollah to rebuild or Iran to restart it nuclear program.  They will act preemptively if they see that happening on the ground. Smart Israelis will choose to focus on the broader Mideast and seek to reengage with Saudi Arabia on an expansion of the Abraham Accords.  They will think big picture and basically ignore Hamas as long as they stay locked in their Gaza cage. Finally, the ultimate steps leading to a two state solution and Palestinian governance in Gaza and the West Bank are completely unappealing to the Israelis. They feel they have been burned by prior peace efforts and support for a two state solution has almost completely disappeared in Israel. They are in no rush to get in the contemplated end stage of this agreement. 

The mainline Arab states, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States are all assigned critical roles in effectuating the details of this peace plan. They will need to fund the infrastructure and rebuilding program. They will coordinate the establishment of a interim governing council and will mediate between the Palestinian factions to organise a competent technocratic governing authority.  Good Luck!! They are cynical group and really don’t care about the Palestinians that much. I doubt they have the will to provide the big time funding and donations necessary to make any of these visions a reality. They certainly won’t make any donations for infrastructure if they believe Israel may decide to blow everything up again.  Getting the Palestinians to agree on who will run things is the equivalent of turning the USA over to a junta of Marjorie Taylor Greene and Alexandria Ocasio Cortez in the United States and hoping for the best. The Americans will lose interest as long as the violence in Gaza remains local. Trump will revel in the accolades associated with the hostage release and the ceasefire and move on to the next photo-op. Europe is completely irrelevant! 

They underlying dynamic remains awful. A majority of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza still refuse to acknowledge the legitimacy of Israel.  1948 is imprinted in their frontal lobes and Israel is an evil usurper and thief who took their lands and historical birthright.  Israel is strong, powerful and confident and isn’t inclined to bend over backwards in any future negotiations. The best plan is for Israel to build a solid and profitable relationship with the other players in the region and perhaps reasonable Palestinians will eventually ask to join the party.  Regime change in Iran would be helpful to the overall dynamic. 

The hostage release and the ceasefire was a good day- a victory for justice- enjoy it but don’t hold your breath on the rest of this agreement.  I hope I am wrong.