Israel and Iran: Chapter One - A History Lesson

In June, 1967, Israel dramatically changed the map of the Mideast and created a new paradigm in its relationships with hostile neighbours. In a brilliantly executed preemptive attack, the Israelis destroyed the Egyptian Air Force, conquered Gaza, East Jerusalem, the West Bank and the Golan Heights. The Egyptians were the losers in Gaza, the Syrians in the Golan Heights and the Jordanians in Jerusalem and the West Bank. Israel established clear military superiority and unambiguously affirmed that it was a permanent fixture in the region. They were not going anywhere! The fundamental elements created by the new reality basically remained in place until 2023, but it was not always smooth sailing. Another war followed in 1973 and Israel, after early reversals, again defeated the armies of Egypt, Syria and Jordan. Egypt and Jordan negotiated peace treaties with Israel, recognising its right to exist, establishing full diplomatic relations and withdrawing any claims to Gaza or the West Bank. Syria and Israel remained officially hostile but there were no further shooting wars. Israel did eliminate Syria and Iraq’s nuclear reactors. The Palestinian question has been negotiated exhaustively since then but no two state solution has been forthcoming. The Oslo Accords were a good faith attempt, but failed. Israel eventually withdrew from Gaza, but imposed an economic embargo assuring Gaza’s physical and economic isolation. Hamas, continuing to deny Israel’s legitimacy, took power in Gaza in 2005. The Palestinian Authority controls limited areas in the West Bank. There are 3 million Palestinians in the West Bank and two million living in the Gaza strip. The Palestinians have revolted thru 2 Intifada movements, but the majority of the West Bank remains subject to Israeli military control and occupation. Israel has authorised a high volume of settlements in the West Bank. Israel, from any objective perspective, has military and political control of its immediate environs although it certainly bears the psychological burden of knowing its immediate neighbours would like them to disappear into the sea, Israel has maintained the support of the world’s foremost superpower, the United States and has received generous military and economic support from all American administrations. This, despite Israel actively undermining several USA initiated Palestinian related peace initiatives. Overall, in September of 2023, the Israelis had a well earned sense of satisfaction. They had survived and prospered. What could go wrong?

The above summary contains no reference to the Islamic Republic of Iran. Technically, Iran is not even a neighbour of Israel- it is over 1000 miles away. There is no shared border or pending dispute over territory. However, after 1979, Iran became Israel’s primary national antagonist in the Mideast. It has affirmed- and reaffirmed for 45 years that Israel has no right to exist and must be expelled from the region. They effectively replaced Egypt and the Arab states as the leaders of the Anti-Zionist movement. It systematically created an “Axis of Resistance” - funding and training local militias and terrorists in Gaza (Hamas), Lebanon (Hezbollah), Yemen (Houthis) and Palestine (Islamic Jihad). It supported the demonic Assad regime in Syria and used it as a transport vehicle for weapons and equipment to Hezbollah and Hamas. It applauded periodic strikes against Israel by its agents. It developed its own ballistic missile capacity and, in fits and starts, initiated a nuclear program. I visited the Mideast with the Chicago Council of Global Affairs in 2018 and our session with Prime Minister Netanyahu was dominated by his never ending protestations that Iran was an “existential” threat to Israel and western civilisation generally. He actively promoted an aggressive western policy to dismantle and destroy Iran’s nuclear program and pursue regime change in Tehran. He was not shy and has never wavered in his views. How did the Iran/Israel/USA triangle of conflict develop? Was it inevitable? A WFM history lesson is order.

FACT: Israel and Iran had a normal and mutually beneficial relationship from 1948 to 1979. During the Shah of Iran’s reign, Iran and Israel maintained close diplomatic and strategic ties. Iran was the first Muslim country to recognise Israel; it did so in 1950 only two years after Israel’s creation. The two countries maintained full diplomatic relations with embassies in both capitals. There was significant military collaboration. Israel supplied military equipment and training to Iran and Iran was the major supplier of oil to Israel and played a particularly important role in supplying Israel when it was attacked by the Arabs in 1973. The two countries developed close intelligence cooperation, sharing information about Soviet activities and Arab military capabilities. The strategic basis for the partnership was they were both non Arab states in a hostile region dominated by Arab nationalism. A bulletin to Americans who view the Mideast as an incomprehensible puzzle of non stop Muslim grievances and violence. There are huge historical differences between Iran and the Arab Muslim states in the region. Iran is Persian, not Arab. The Iranians are Shiite Muslims and the majority of the other countries are Sunni. Iran is a real country- a descendant of a rich Persian civilisation and Empire. The Arab “nations” were post WWI Western creations. The Iranians had major cities with world class universities and libraries when the Saudis were nomads wandering around the desert. Trust me, the Iranians have a strong sense of nationhood. Iran has enormous modern potential. It has vast natural resources, ten percent of the world’s oil deposits, an educated citizenry and a proud identity. It has a strategic location. It would be a G20 country if it was governed by normal people. It should be an American ally. Henry Kissinger once observed, “There are few nations in the world with which the United States has less reason to quarrel or more compatible interests than Iran.” WHAT WENT WRONG?

Basically, the 1979 Islamic Revolution changed everything- for the worse- for everyone! After the Shah was deposed, a new Shia based theocratic regime was created. It was led by Ayatollah Khomeini. Iran adopted a radically different set of policies, internally and externally. Western type freedoms were ruthlessly suppressed. It immediately classified the United States as “the Great Satan”, terminated diplomatic relations and occupied our embassy and took hostages. They immediately described Israel as “the Little Satan”, terminated diplomatic relations and stated “Israel is an illegitimate Zionist entity that has no right to exist.” The Islamic Republic views Israel as an unnatural colonial implant in historic Muslim lands. They frame the conflict in religious terms- a battle between Islam, Judaism and Christian imperialists. They invited other anti zionists in the region to join their revolutionary movement. They embraced a proxy strategy, recruiting and supporting local groups with logistical, financial and military assistance. Hamas and Hezbollah were the end result. The bottom line is the current enmity was unilaterally created by the Iranian regime. It was not prompted by any anti Iran action taken by Israel. it was an ideologically sourced decision that made the entire region more dangerous.

The passionate hatred underlying Iran’s posture toward Israel can best be measured by the barrage of hyperbolic statements made by Iranian leaders over the years. Israel has chosen to take Iran at its word- these guys are telling us they don’t want us around!! A litany of examples follows: Israel’s regime is a “sinister, unclean, rabid dog, a cancerous tumour in the region.” “Israel must be wiped off the map and there is no doubt the new wave in Palestine will soon wipe this disgraceful blot from the face of the Islamic world.” In describing Israel’s creation, "they gathered, organised and armed the dirtiest, the filthiest and most criminal so called humans from different parts of the world 60 years ago under a false and void excuse.” Iran explicitly denies the Holocaust and promotes every available nut job conspiracy theory about Jewish and Zionist influence. The Islamic Revolution produced a nasty regime and I cannot rationally challenge Israel’s conclusion that Iran must be treated as a mortal enemy.

Well Bill, you say, that is just blowhard rhetoric from an immature country- no need to overreact. I agree that talk is cheap and behaviour is the ultimate measuring stick of intent, but Iran’s concrete actions against Israel match the bluster. Iran has provided tangible and consistent support for Hamas, Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad, all who have called for the violent destruction of the Israeli state. In 2020, the US Department of State estimated that Iran has provided Hezbollah 700 million dollars of aid annually for a decade. Hamas receives 100 million each year. They aren’t building libraries and gardens with these funds. The Iranians cleverly avoid sanction regimes through a complex network of shell companies, front companies, sham charities, virtual currencies, real estate investments and money laundering schemes. The Iranians taught Hezbollah how to manufacture their own short range missiles. They eventually supplied Hezbollah with long range missiles through Syria. Iran assisted Hamas with the design and installation of 365 miles of tunnels in Gaza. The elite Qud force from Iran transferred weapons to Hamas, Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad. Yahhya Sinwar, the Hamas leader behind the October 7 attack on Israel proclaimed that “the Islamic Republic of Iran is our largest backer financially and militarily.” Iran’s fingerprints are all over every targeted attack against Israel in the past 20 years. They turned localised resistance groups into serious actors who possessed the capability to execute serious military operations against Israel. The “Axis of Resistance" is a fundamental pillar of Iran’s strategy to pressure Israel on all fronts and project its own power throughout the region.

In October 2023, Israel stood strong, but was surrounded by well equipped and highly motivated adversaries on its northern and western border. They were subject to periodic incursions and missile strikes. They would always respond with disproportionate and highly effective force, but the fundamentals remained unchanged. The situation was manageable. Israel’s primary concern was that the threat level would increase dramatically if Iran’s nuclear program advanced to a weaponisation stage. The program had been contained by the Obama era agreement which froze Iran’s enrichment capability at a non weaponising level. Netanyahu convinced Trump to withdraw from that agreement even though the best evidence was that Iran was in compliance. Iran, with sanctions reimposed by the Trump administration, restarted its program and by 2025 had increased its enriched uranium stockpile to levels just below weaponisation. After termination of the Obama agreement, Netanyahu constantly called for the US to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities but Trump and Biden refused to take that step. The US was primarily concerned with an Iranian response that would trigger a regional war that would drag in the United States. Israel contemplated attacking the nuclear sites on their own but hesitated because they were vulnerable to ballistic missile attacks from Hezbollah. They also did not possess the bunker bombs necessary to demolish the underground enrichment plant at Fordow.

This was the Israel-Iran status quo on October 7, 2023. The successful and brutal Hamas attack on Israel would change the dynamic entirely- stay tuned for Chapter 2.